Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just two months prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.