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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."